Introduction
My betting method is based on the analysis of 7 criteria. Each criterion is scored +1 or -1, leading to a total figure that I call: model score.
Bets Shared on X / Telegram
I’ve learned that to achieve a high success rate, I must only bet when model score is below a certain value and when all criteria are met. That makes my bet volume limited, but the accuracy very high with significant profit. Bets are taken on Asian markets (mainly Pinnacle, via broker).
🗨️ My Telegram channel is: https://t.me/fabetting
🔔 My X account is: https://x.com/fabienbetting
In May, I shared 9 bets: 7 wins, 1 loss, with a total profit of +45.10 U.
The overall performance of my service is as follows:
I am very satisfied with the results until now. First two months of the service did not end with profit but I’ve been having consistent and significant profit in each month that followed.
I pay close attention to maintaining a high strike rate because I want any follower who might miss a few bets during the month to still feel confident taking the next one — and be able to finish the month in profit. I also try to post bets as early as possible so followers can get on them in time — typically about an hour before kick-off, when the betting limits are highest.
In may the two most remarkable bets were actually the first two of the month:
- NEC +2 against Ajax Amsterdam — NEC won 0-3 away against Ajax. A massive result and huge margin for my bet.
- Winterthur +1 against St. Gallen — Winterthur beat St. Gallen 1-4 away, also far exceeding expectations.
I try as much as possible to post my bets in parallel on Bet2Invest. Reaching Pro level there might be difficult in the short term, but I mostly use it as a way to provide public proof of my betting record — even though all my bets are also accessible via other platforms.
New Automated Strategies
I built a Python robot (with help from ChatGPT) that scans and selects games automatically based on my criteria, logs results in Excel, and allows analysis.
This history led me to 6 new strategies, each more or less strict on specific criteria.
Robot runs daily at 7 AM using closing Asian Handicap lines.
After more than a month of building up this history (which started on 19/04/2025), the results are as follows:
Profit / Loss (P/L):
Evolution P/L:
Number of bets (/month, /day):
Strike rate (excluding voided bets):
ROI:
Considering a flat stake of 200 €, the new strategies generated in just over a month:
- + €2,560 profit for the most selective strategy
- + €2,577 profit for the least selective strategy
- + €4,149 profit for the most profitable strategy
For comparison, my X / Telegram bets earned ~ €3,000 but in 9 months.
Early Findings
After 43 days:
- All strategies are profitable and generate significant profit (each > 100 U).
- Strategies 2 & 4 are most profitable (+200 U).
- Strategy 1 has the most bets: 244 (~ 6/day).
- Strategy 1 has largest one-day loss: -62 U.
- Max daily loss for strategies 3 to 6 is very low: -12 U.
- Strategy 6 is the safest (18 bets offered, 16 wins, 2 voids → 100% strike rate).
Interesting fact: Underdogs playing away show much better profit than when at home. I was not expecting that at all.
These are not definitive conclusions yet, given the relatively small sample size — just early insights.
Strategic Use by Profile
Bettors with time can go for Strategy 2 or 4 that generate the most profits (+200 U, with 3–4 bets/day).
Busy bettors may prefer Strategy 6 (high profit, +128 U, low volume).
Personally, I prefer Strategy 6 since my time for betting is very limited.
Again, these are not final conclusions, just early trends.
What’s Next?
- Continue enriching bet history to evaluate each strategy over 500 – 1500 bets and over a whole year.
- Identify if other strategies can generate more profit or equivalent profit with less number of bets.
- Handle API limitations like the 3-hour odds delay or the fact that, my bot does not identified cancelled bets as such – it considers it as a game ending up with a 3-0 score.
- Evaluate better APIs (please share yours!).
- Investigate asian handicap spread sensitivity to model score
I would love to consistently log each bet into a personal Bet2Invest record, but the volume is too high compared to the time I have to manage it. I still try to do it whenever I can.
Conclusion
This project started as a tool to help me select bets, and it has completely transformed my process.
While I was already satisfied of my X/Telegram service (~ +137 U in 5 months), I now have other strategies generating nearly +100 U per month — on asian broker-playable bets (mostly Pinnacle).
I remain cautious — stakes on new strategies are still lower — but the potential is clear and exciting.
I will wait a couple of months to see if new strategies continue being profitable and if so I will start sharing them with you on X and Telegram.