🚀 Technical Progress
I thought I would have more time during the holidays to work on my code, but in the end it turned out to be quite the opposite 😅.
Still, I managed to achieve something important: I set up direct match analysis through the Pinnacle API, without relying on the API-Football I usually use (which only updates data — AH line, odds, etc. — every 3 hours).
Since I got back on August 23, I’ve managed to free up some time here and there, and I’ve reached a huge milestone: full automation of both the identification and the actual placement of bets on my Pinnacle account.
For now, I’m starting with a fixed stake, but in the long run I plan to switch to a bankroll-proportional stake that the bot would fetch automatically. I’ve also built in some practical cases: for example, when my stake exceeds the maximum allowed by Pinnacle, the bot will retry later to complete the stake if the bet is still relevant.
I expect to find a few bugs or issues over the coming weeks, but honestly this is a milestone I didn’t think I’d reach so quickly.
📊 August Results
On the results side, August was a tough month: almost all strategies ended in the red.
That’s no surprise, since the summer period is far from favorable to my approaches.
I expect early September to look a lot like August. On the other hand, I’m excited to see results from mid/late September onwards, once most of the major leagues have settled into their rhythm. That’s also reflected in my public picks on X: in August, I only shared 2 bets (both void) — quite telling of this quiet period.
👉 Despite this difficult month, the overall record remains positive across all strategies except Strategy 1. And most importantly, volumes are starting to be significant for the strategies generating the largest gains:
- 296 bets for Strategy 1b
- 172 bets for Strategy 2/4b
Here’s the breakdown of the monthly P/L for each strategy:
And here’s the P/L variation during August:
🔎 Deeper Analysis: Summary 1 vs Summary 2
Since July, I’ve been comparing two ways of calculating results:
- Summary 1: taking the AH line and odds available 3 hours before kickoff (initial logic).
- Summary 2: taking the AH line and odds available at the exact moment the bet was first detected (so earlier).
The results speak for themselves:
- Strategy 1: -176 U (Summary 1) → +45 U (Summary 2) → +221 U difference
- Strategy 1b: +71 U → +150 U (+79 U)
- Strategy 2: -99 U → +56 U (+155 U)
- Strategy 4: -86 U → +78 U (+164 U)
👉 Clearly, I should be placing bets as soon as they are detected.
The flip side: bets placed early are more dependent on Pinnacle’s maximum stake limits, which can be quite low several hours before kickoff. That said, even with a standard stake of €100 per bet, the results remain very encouraging.
🎯 Thoughts on Sharing with the Community
This raises a real question:
How do I share these bets with the community (X, Telegram, etc.) while avoiding situations where followers end up with very different results from mine?
If I share bets too early, some may be impossible to follow because of low limits or odds. As a result, other bettors’ results could differ greatly from mine.
I don’t think there’s a perfect solution. The best approach will probably be to test one month of real-time sharing (for example on Telegram, where my alert system is already in place), then see how it goes and adjust.
📚 Additional Tracking
In my July recap, I explained that I had started tracking lower AH spreads (higher odds). So far, results haven’t shown anything conclusive. I’ll keep the data in the background for reanalysis later this year.
However, given the number of bets lost by a single goal in the dying minutes of August matches, I’ve decided to add complementary tracking of higher AH spreads (lower odds, often with outsiders around 1.50).
🤖 My Current Bots
At this point, I’m running several bots:
API-Foot Analysis (enriched historical data):
- Main AH lines (~1.85 odds)
- Higher AH spreads (outsiders around 1.50)
- Lower AH spreads (higher odds)
Pinnacle API Analysis (real-time market scanning):
- Main AH lines (~1.85) → automatic betting when an opportunity matches Strategy 2/4b
- Higher AH spreads (~1.50 outsider)
✅ Conclusion
To sum up:
- August confirmed that the summer period is not the most profitable ❌
- But the technical progress (bots, automation, Pinnacle API) is massive ✅
- Bilan 2 clearly shows the higher potential of placing bets at detection
- The coming months (mid-September to May) will be the decisive period to truly validate my strategies
I’m going into this next stage with both high expectations and cautious optimism.
Feel free to reach out with any questions, comments, or advice!